Every war reshapes the world. Its consequences are global

Center for Global Conflict and Post‑Conflict Transformation

The Center is a permanent research hub dedicated to the study of contemporary wars: their causes, trajectories, and consequences for states and societies. Particular attention is given to how conflicts are perceived in India and Latin American countries, and how these assessments shape foreign policy decisions.

Research Areas

Every war warrants careful study, regardless of its location, scale, or level of media coverage. Armed conflicts affect international security, diplomacy, trade, energy, and migration. The program connects developments in conflict zones with their wider global consequences and examines how states, experts, and the media interpret them.
  • Foreign Policy Choices and Sanctions
    Neutrality, non-alignment, strategic autonomy, multi-vector foreign policy, and issue-based partnerships. How sectoral sanctions, secondary restrictions, and technological dependencies affect room for foreign policy maneuver, participation in peace processes, and humanitarian response.
  • Non-State Actors in Conflict
    The role of transnational corporations, private military companies, mercenaries, and paramilitary groups. Insurgent movements and criminal networks, their identities and brands, and their influence during war and in post-conflict engagement.
  • Information and Public Perceptions
    Competing interpretations of wars across news media, social networks, and messaging platforms. Trusted sources, the spread of disinformation and manipulative narratives, and differences in how states, expert communities, and the broader public perceive conflicts.
  • Peace Processes and Post-Conflict Change
    Prospects for ending wars and rebuilding afterward. Changes in state institutions, the economy, social structures, public opinion, and historical memory under the impact of armed conflict.

DEDICATED RESEARCH TRACK

India and Latin America

How Wars Beyond the Region Are Perceived
Geographic distance does not remove the need for a country to define its position onsanctions, peace processes, humanitarian assistance, and relations with the parties to a conflict. The Center will examine how experts form assessments of these 'distant wars.
  • Sources and Trust
    Which sources do experts rely on? How do they compare official documents, media coverage, social networks, and messaging platforms? How do information habits vary across generations?
  • National Interests and Historical Experience
    Which historical analogies shape assessments? How do these assessments relate to national interestsandstrategic autonomy - the ability to chart an independent foreign policy course?
  • Narratives and External Influence
    How do accounts of events circulate and adapt to local agendas? Which manipulative narratives provepersuasive, and how does external information influence relate to expert assessments?
Comparing countries will reveal shared patterns and differences while preserving attentiontonational context and the diversity of views within each society.

From Mounting Tensions to Post‑Conflict Recovery

The research group covers the full life cycle of conflicts, including the conditions underwhich they may recur.
Preconditions
Accumulating grievances, political tensions, and factors that may lead to armed confrontation.
Escalation
The intensification of hostilities, the involvement of new actors, and the widening political and economic consequences.
Cessation of Hostilities
Opportunities for de-escalation, conditions for a ceasefire, and prospects for negotiations.
Peace Settlement
Agreements, security guarantees, and obstacles to a sustainable peace.
Recovery
Changes in institutions, the economy, and social relations; historical memory; and the risk of renewed conflict.
Stages may overlap and recur. A cessation of hostilities does not always mean that theconflict has ended.

How We Develop Research Findings

Our work is grounded in systematic data collection and verification, comparison of the parties' positions, and analysis of conflicts in their political, historical, and social contexts.
  • Comparative Analysis
    Comparison of contemporary conflicts to identify shared mechanisms and the distinctive features of each case.
  • Expert Interviews and Surveys
    Analysis of professional assessments, public perceptions, and generational differences in how people engage with information.
  • Official Documents and Diplomatic Positions
    Analysis of statements, decisions, and documents that define the positions of states and other actors.
  • Media, Social Networks, and Conflict Narratives
    Study of how interpretations circulate, verification of claims against available evidence, and identification of disinformation and manipulative techniques.
  • Scenario Analysis and Risk Assessment
    Assessment of possible developments, the conditions under which they may occur, and their political consequences.
This combination of methods makes it possible to compare different types of sources and distinguish verified information from interpretation. Scenario assessments account for uncertainty and specify the conditions under which conclusions may change.

Research for Analysis, Decision-Making, and Public Debate

The Center's research helps audiences assess escalation risks and the political and economicconsequences of war, understand the positions of conflict parties, and scrutinize widely circulated interpretations of events.
  • Policy Briefs
    Key findings on a specific issue, risk assessments, possible scenarios, and their implications for states and societies.
  • Expert Commentary
    Substantive explanations of international developments grounded in the Center's research.
  • Media Resources
    Accessible presentation of findings for a broad audience: conflict context, examination of disputed claims, and explanations of complex processes.
For experts, this work provides a basis for comparing positions and assessing risk. For journalists, it offers a research foundation for reporting. For readers, it supports a clearer understanding of international affairs and helps them navigate conflicting information.
Research and Media Collaboration
If your work concerns international conflicts, their consequences, or perceptionsof themin India and Latin America, contact the Center to discuss possible avenues for collaboration.
  • For Researchers and Experts
    Propose a research question, describe your area of expertise, or discuss taking part in an expert interviewora collaborative project.
    Propose a Collaboration
  • For Journalists and Newsrooms
    Contact us about the research program, expert commentary, or coverage of the Center's findings.
    Submit a Media Inquiry
Briefly describe the subject of your inquiry and provide contact details for a reply. For media inquiries, include the name of the outlet and your deadline.