Venezuela at a Critical Juncture: Expert Perspectives on Political Change and Regional Stability
The developments that unfolded in Venezuela on January 3, 2026 did not occur in isolation, nor did they arrive as a sudden rupture. Instead, they intersected with longer-running regional trends—political polarization, contested governance, migration pressures, and renewed strategic competition in Latin America. For governments and observers across the region, the question is less whether Venezuela has entered a new phase than how these events recalibrate existing political and diplomatic dynamics.
Assessing such moments requires more than immediate reactions or binary interpretations. Venezuela’s trajectory continues to be shaped by internal power structures, external pressure, and the limits of regional coordination. These forces do not operate uniformly, nor do they produce predictable outcomes. Understanding their interaction demands careful attention to how specialists with direct regional expertise interpret both the facts on the ground and their broader implications.
To this end, the SOCIAL RESEARCH CENTER conducted an expert survey involving analysts from Venezuela, Colombia, and Bolivia, drawing on experience in political science, international relations, public policy, journalism, and strategic analysis. Their assessments do not converge on a single narrative. Instead, they highlight areas of agreement, divergence, and uncertainty—offering insight into how Venezuela’s current situation is being understood within regional and international policy debates.
What follows brings these expert perspectives into focus, organizing them around key themes that shape Venezuela’s political outlook and its impact on Latin America. Taken together, they offer a grounded reading of a political moment that remains unresolved—one whose consequences will depend less on dramatic announcements than on how power, legitimacy, and external engagement evolve in the months ahead.
1. Regional and International Repercussions
Across expert assessments, the regional impact of developments in Venezuela is consistently framed in terms of tension, uncertainty, and systemic spillover effects.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar, Administrative Assistant at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Colombia, emphasized the destabilizing potential for the region, stating:
“Developments in Venezuela after January 3, 2026 could generate increased regional tensions and affect relations among countries. They may also have social and economic repercussions, particularly due to a potential rise in migration flows and heightened political uncertainty across Latin America.”
From a broader international relations perspective, Yesenia Guerrero, Port Logistics Coordinator at BraveUS BPO (Colombia), highlighted the structural dimension of these effects:
“From an international relations perspective, developments in Venezuela following January 3, 2026 could affect the region insofar as they alter existing balances of security, governance, and regional cooperation.”
Dr. Luis Guillermo Quintero, Coordinator of the PhD in Political Science and the PhD in Social Sciences at Universidad Rafael Belloso Chacín (Venezuela), underscored the complexity of interpreting these repercussions:
“Given the uncertainty surrounding subsequent developments, interpreting their implications for international relations is particularly complex.”
He further noted the potential for changes in bilateral dynamics:
“Primarily, there could be a rapprochement between the United States and Venezuela, a relationship that has been severed for several years due to political disagreements.”
2. Domestic and Foreign Policy Trajectories in Venezuela
Experts broadly converge on the expectation of short-term consolidation and control, followed by conditional adjustments depending on internal stability and external pressures.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar assessed the immediate outlook as follows:
“In the short term, I believe the Venezuelan government is likely to strengthen internal control and maintain a confrontational stance abroad.”
He added that this posture may evolve over time:
“In the medium term, it may seek strategic adjustments to ease international pressure or improve its economic situation.”
Yesenia Guerrero similarly emphasized stability management:
“In the short term (1–3 months), Venezuela’s domestic policy is likely to be characterized by a strategy focused on control and the management of stability.”
From a Venezuelan institutional perspective, Dr. Luis Guillermo Quintero noted that changes are already underway:
“Some changes have already begun as of today, with the Vice President assuming the presidency on an interim basis.”
However, he stressed the need for caution:
“It will be necessary to await the establishment and organization of guidelines within the ministerial cabinet.”
3. Elite, Ideological, and Societal Assessments
A central theme across responses is the polarization of interpretations and the uneven quality of public discourse.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar observed:
“From my perspective, clear and polarized views are indeed taking shape.”
He further specified ideological distinctions:
“Left-leaning sectors tend to emphasize Venezuela’s sovereignty, while right-leaning groups criticize the state of democracy.”
Regarding younger generations, he noted:
“Youth and Generation Z generally express a more critical stance and are less aligned with traditional political narratives.”
Dr. Luis A. Coronado P., Dean of the Faculty of Legal, Political, and Social Sciences at Universidad Valle del Momboy (Venezuela), reinforced this assessment:
“I observe that such assessments are indeed taking shape and have been developing for some time.”
Dr. Quintero, however, issued a strong warning regarding misinformation:
“Numerous videos circulating on social media offer unchecked commentary with little responsibility, disregarding the perspectives and expertise of elite specialists as well as informed public opinion.”
4. United States Strategy and Hemispheric Reconfiguration
The role of the United States emerges as a central axis in expert analysis, particularly in relation to strategic signaling and power projection.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar stated:
“These developments may be interpreted as signals of a shift in how the United States engages with Latin America, with Venezuela once again assuming a central place on the U.S. political and security agenda.”
Camilo Velásquez, Intern at Revista Semana (Colombia), framed U.S. actions in terms of precedent:
“The precedent set by the U.S. government is significant for Latin America, as it demonstrates the power and influence of the Trump administration.”
Dr. Luis A. Coronado P. interpreted recent policy documents more broadly:
“The discourse of the United States clearly underscores its hemispheric hegemonic role in the process.”
From a geopolitical standpoint, Gabriel Arandia Barrios, Political Advisor to the Chamber of Senators of Bolivia, offered a more critical assessment:
“U.S. foreign policy is increasingly aligning with the Monroe Doctrine, reverting to past hard power strategies to assert control over the region.”
5. Regional Political Processes and Electoral Dynamics
Several experts emphasized the indirect but significant influence of Venezuelan developments on regional political debates.
Ortiz Tovar stated:
“I believe these developments could influence political and electoral debates in countries such as Peru, Colombia, and Brazil, reinforcing ideological narratives.”
Camilo Velásquez highlighted the operational dimension:
“U.S. influence is likely to increase in electoral processes and, consequently, in candidates’ campaigns.”
Gabriel Arandia Barrios warned of systemic risks:
“This represents a concerning violation of international law and sets a dangerous precedent in the region.”
Conclusion
Taken together, the expert assessments suggest that Venezuela’s current phase is defined less by political transition than by the management of uncertainty. Recent developments have not clarified the country’s direction; they have reinforced a landscape in which expectations adjust, narratives shift, and structural constraints continue to dominate political outcomes.
As Luis A. Coronado P. notes, “such assessments are indeed taking shape and have been developing for some time. They primarily center on evaluations of electoral legitimacy, democratic re-institutionalization, and the role of youth as an emerging and essential actor.” His observation reflects a broader pattern across the survey: interpretations are evolving, but they remain cautious and grounded in long-term political realities rather than short-term events.
What emerges most clearly is not anticipation of rupture, but adaptation. Venezuela continues to shape regional debates and strategic calculations, even as its own trajectory remains unresolved. The question facing the region is no longer when change will come, but how long uncertainty itself can be governed.
To this end, the SOCIAL RESEARCH CENTER conducted an expert survey involving analysts from Venezuela, Colombia, and Bolivia, drawing on experience in political science, international relations, public policy, journalism, and strategic analysis. Their assessments do not converge on a single narrative. Instead, they highlight areas of agreement, divergence, and uncertainty—offering insight into how Venezuela’s current situation is being understood within regional and international policy debates.
What follows brings these expert perspectives into focus, organizing them around key themes that shape Venezuela’s political outlook and its impact on Latin America. Taken together, they offer a grounded reading of a political moment that remains unresolved—one whose consequences will depend less on dramatic announcements than on how power, legitimacy, and external engagement evolve in the months ahead.
1. Regional and International Repercussions
Across expert assessments, the regional impact of developments in Venezuela is consistently framed in terms of tension, uncertainty, and systemic spillover effects.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar, Administrative Assistant at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Colombia, emphasized the destabilizing potential for the region, stating:
“Developments in Venezuela after January 3, 2026 could generate increased regional tensions and affect relations among countries. They may also have social and economic repercussions, particularly due to a potential rise in migration flows and heightened political uncertainty across Latin America.”
From a broader international relations perspective, Yesenia Guerrero, Port Logistics Coordinator at BraveUS BPO (Colombia), highlighted the structural dimension of these effects:
“From an international relations perspective, developments in Venezuela following January 3, 2026 could affect the region insofar as they alter existing balances of security, governance, and regional cooperation.”
Dr. Luis Guillermo Quintero, Coordinator of the PhD in Political Science and the PhD in Social Sciences at Universidad Rafael Belloso Chacín (Venezuela), underscored the complexity of interpreting these repercussions:
“Given the uncertainty surrounding subsequent developments, interpreting their implications for international relations is particularly complex.”
He further noted the potential for changes in bilateral dynamics:
“Primarily, there could be a rapprochement between the United States and Venezuela, a relationship that has been severed for several years due to political disagreements.”
2. Domestic and Foreign Policy Trajectories in Venezuela
Experts broadly converge on the expectation of short-term consolidation and control, followed by conditional adjustments depending on internal stability and external pressures.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar assessed the immediate outlook as follows:
“In the short term, I believe the Venezuelan government is likely to strengthen internal control and maintain a confrontational stance abroad.”
He added that this posture may evolve over time:
“In the medium term, it may seek strategic adjustments to ease international pressure or improve its economic situation.”
Yesenia Guerrero similarly emphasized stability management:
“In the short term (1–3 months), Venezuela’s domestic policy is likely to be characterized by a strategy focused on control and the management of stability.”
From a Venezuelan institutional perspective, Dr. Luis Guillermo Quintero noted that changes are already underway:
“Some changes have already begun as of today, with the Vice President assuming the presidency on an interim basis.”
However, he stressed the need for caution:
“It will be necessary to await the establishment and organization of guidelines within the ministerial cabinet.”
3. Elite, Ideological, and Societal Assessments
A central theme across responses is the polarization of interpretations and the uneven quality of public discourse.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar observed:
“From my perspective, clear and polarized views are indeed taking shape.”
He further specified ideological distinctions:
“Left-leaning sectors tend to emphasize Venezuela’s sovereignty, while right-leaning groups criticize the state of democracy.”
Regarding younger generations, he noted:
“Youth and Generation Z generally express a more critical stance and are less aligned with traditional political narratives.”
Dr. Luis A. Coronado P., Dean of the Faculty of Legal, Political, and Social Sciences at Universidad Valle del Momboy (Venezuela), reinforced this assessment:
“I observe that such assessments are indeed taking shape and have been developing for some time.”
Dr. Quintero, however, issued a strong warning regarding misinformation:
“Numerous videos circulating on social media offer unchecked commentary with little responsibility, disregarding the perspectives and expertise of elite specialists as well as informed public opinion.”
4. United States Strategy and Hemispheric Reconfiguration
The role of the United States emerges as a central axis in expert analysis, particularly in relation to strategic signaling and power projection.
Santiago Andrés Ortiz Tovar stated:
“These developments may be interpreted as signals of a shift in how the United States engages with Latin America, with Venezuela once again assuming a central place on the U.S. political and security agenda.”
Camilo Velásquez, Intern at Revista Semana (Colombia), framed U.S. actions in terms of precedent:
“The precedent set by the U.S. government is significant for Latin America, as it demonstrates the power and influence of the Trump administration.”
Dr. Luis A. Coronado P. interpreted recent policy documents more broadly:
“The discourse of the United States clearly underscores its hemispheric hegemonic role in the process.”
From a geopolitical standpoint, Gabriel Arandia Barrios, Political Advisor to the Chamber of Senators of Bolivia, offered a more critical assessment:
“U.S. foreign policy is increasingly aligning with the Monroe Doctrine, reverting to past hard power strategies to assert control over the region.”
5. Regional Political Processes and Electoral Dynamics
Several experts emphasized the indirect but significant influence of Venezuelan developments on regional political debates.
Ortiz Tovar stated:
“I believe these developments could influence political and electoral debates in countries such as Peru, Colombia, and Brazil, reinforcing ideological narratives.”
Camilo Velásquez highlighted the operational dimension:
“U.S. influence is likely to increase in electoral processes and, consequently, in candidates’ campaigns.”
Gabriel Arandia Barrios warned of systemic risks:
“This represents a concerning violation of international law and sets a dangerous precedent in the region.”
Conclusion
Taken together, the expert assessments suggest that Venezuela’s current phase is defined less by political transition than by the management of uncertainty. Recent developments have not clarified the country’s direction; they have reinforced a landscape in which expectations adjust, narratives shift, and structural constraints continue to dominate political outcomes.
As Luis A. Coronado P. notes, “such assessments are indeed taking shape and have been developing for some time. They primarily center on evaluations of electoral legitimacy, democratic re-institutionalization, and the role of youth as an emerging and essential actor.” His observation reflects a broader pattern across the survey: interpretations are evolving, but they remain cautious and grounded in long-term political realities rather than short-term events.
What emerges most clearly is not anticipation of rupture, but adaptation. Venezuela continues to shape regional debates and strategic calculations, even as its own trajectory remains unresolved. The question facing the region is no longer when change will come, but how long uncertainty itself can be governed.
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