China is Aging. Can it Find a Clear Solution?
Concerns about maintaining racial purity and political control trump concerns about a shrinking workforce. The Chinese government this month announced it would stop overseas adoptions of Chinese babies. This ends a three-decades-long program, leaving hundreds of American families waiting in limbo. Beijing has proposed new rules that make it easier for Chinese couples to get married and harder to divorce. There are also plans to raise the retirement age. One of the lowest in the world, at 60 for men and 50 or 55 years for women. The government is offering incentives such as tax breaks, time off work, in vitro fertilization assistance, and cash for couples who want to have more children.
China's rulers are trying everything possible to defuse a demographic time bomb. Their population is shrinking and getting older. India overtook China as the most populous country in the world last year. China's birthrate fell by 5.7% last year to 6.39 births per 1,000 people, and for the first time since the Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward, the number of deaths exceeded births in China in 2019. By some estimates, China's population could decrease by more than half by 2100. The total fertility rate in China hovers around 1.0, putting it in the same category as its neighbors South Korea and Japan, which have similar low fertility rates. However, unlike these countries, China is aging quickly before it has become rich.
The various gimmicks do not work. Chinese women are not being persuaded or coerced into having more babies. Adding to the problem of outward migration, the country faces a serious shortage of people in the near future. Advanced technology could help some, but the "world's factory" won't have enough workers, caregivers, or taxpayers. It is not just China and East Asia; most wealthy countries, especially Northern Europe, are dealing with falling birth rates and future labor shortages. Some countries like Spain (as my colleague Lee Hockstader reported recently) have found a silver bullet to solve their demographic challenges. East Asia also has it, but is afraid to take action. The solution is immigration. Wait. Immigration? To China? Or even to Japan or South Korea? Is this a thing? China's immigrant population is less than one percent.
China, Japan and South Korea are surrounded by countries with growing populations and people looking for work - the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia. Further afield, Africa is growing. The median age in China is about 39, as well as in the United States; in Africa it is 19. By 2035 Africa's working age population is expected to be greater than the rest of the world's combined. These people will need to work somewhere and will be needed everywhere but they probably will not move to China. In Northeast Asia, especially China, the idea of racial purity runs strong. President Xi Jinping gave then-President Donald Trump a tour of Beijing's Forbidden City in 2017 and said Chinese civilization is a "unique lasting culture in the world." Xi explained through an interpreter: "People like us can trace our origins back 5,000 years to red hair and yellow skin. We call ourselves the descendants of dragons."
This attitude has led to xenophobia and occasional hostility towards foreigners. This became evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when China closed off from the rest of the world and blamed outsiders for introducing the virus to the country. Many non-Chinese people, including overseas students, had their visas cancelled, and some restaurants and stores refused to serve foreigners. Africans in particular were targeted; some were kicked out of their apartments and forced to sleep on the street.
About four years ago, the Chinese justice ministry proposed allowing foreigners to obtain residency more easily. This proposal sparked an online backlash. A post that read "China is not an immigrant country" received more than four billion views. Last year, Human Rights Watch urged China's government to combat anti-Black racism on Chinese social media. Many objectionable posts warn of contamination of the Chinese bloodline through interracial marriage with foreigners, particularly Black foreigners. There is another reason why China is unlikely to welcome more outsiders: the paranoid Communist government tries to convince its citizens that foreigners are spies who want to overthrow the regime, and allowing more of them could threaten the government's demand for total control and social stability.
Looking at parts of Europe and the United States, where rising immigration has led to a populist backlash against immigrants, China may be reluctant to follow the same path of population decline. China has a serious problem that is only getting worse, but there is a ready solution available. However, do not expect an opening any time soon. The rulers of China have shown that control is more important than anything else, including economic growth, it seems.
23.09.2024
China's rulers are trying everything possible to defuse a demographic time bomb. Their population is shrinking and getting older. India overtook China as the most populous country in the world last year. China's birthrate fell by 5.7% last year to 6.39 births per 1,000 people, and for the first time since the Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward, the number of deaths exceeded births in China in 2019. By some estimates, China's population could decrease by more than half by 2100. The total fertility rate in China hovers around 1.0, putting it in the same category as its neighbors South Korea and Japan, which have similar low fertility rates. However, unlike these countries, China is aging quickly before it has become rich.
The various gimmicks do not work. Chinese women are not being persuaded or coerced into having more babies. Adding to the problem of outward migration, the country faces a serious shortage of people in the near future. Advanced technology could help some, but the "world's factory" won't have enough workers, caregivers, or taxpayers. It is not just China and East Asia; most wealthy countries, especially Northern Europe, are dealing with falling birth rates and future labor shortages. Some countries like Spain (as my colleague Lee Hockstader reported recently) have found a silver bullet to solve their demographic challenges. East Asia also has it, but is afraid to take action. The solution is immigration. Wait. Immigration? To China? Or even to Japan or South Korea? Is this a thing? China's immigrant population is less than one percent.
China, Japan and South Korea are surrounded by countries with growing populations and people looking for work - the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia. Further afield, Africa is growing. The median age in China is about 39, as well as in the United States; in Africa it is 19. By 2035 Africa's working age population is expected to be greater than the rest of the world's combined. These people will need to work somewhere and will be needed everywhere but they probably will not move to China. In Northeast Asia, especially China, the idea of racial purity runs strong. President Xi Jinping gave then-President Donald Trump a tour of Beijing's Forbidden City in 2017 and said Chinese civilization is a "unique lasting culture in the world." Xi explained through an interpreter: "People like us can trace our origins back 5,000 years to red hair and yellow skin. We call ourselves the descendants of dragons."
This attitude has led to xenophobia and occasional hostility towards foreigners. This became evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, when China closed off from the rest of the world and blamed outsiders for introducing the virus to the country. Many non-Chinese people, including overseas students, had their visas cancelled, and some restaurants and stores refused to serve foreigners. Africans in particular were targeted; some were kicked out of their apartments and forced to sleep on the street.
About four years ago, the Chinese justice ministry proposed allowing foreigners to obtain residency more easily. This proposal sparked an online backlash. A post that read "China is not an immigrant country" received more than four billion views. Last year, Human Rights Watch urged China's government to combat anti-Black racism on Chinese social media. Many objectionable posts warn of contamination of the Chinese bloodline through interracial marriage with foreigners, particularly Black foreigners. There is another reason why China is unlikely to welcome more outsiders: the paranoid Communist government tries to convince its citizens that foreigners are spies who want to overthrow the regime, and allowing more of them could threaten the government's demand for total control and social stability.
Looking at parts of Europe and the United States, where rising immigration has led to a populist backlash against immigrants, China may be reluctant to follow the same path of population decline. China has a serious problem that is only getting worse, but there is a ready solution available. However, do not expect an opening any time soon. The rulers of China have shown that control is more important than anything else, including economic growth, it seems.
23.09.2024