China's Population Could Shrink to Half by 2100
Is China's future population decline a crisis or an opportunity? China's population of 1.4 billion people was the largest in the world, but this is no longer the case. In 2023, India surpassed China as the most populous country. The latest United Nations report indicates that China's population could slip to 1.3 billion by 2050 and plummet to only 770 million by 2100.
As this news spreads, warnings of a looming crisis grow louder. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of these warnings is that China may not have enough young people to drive economic growth or support older adults. However, China's declining population could be an opportunity rather than a crisis, as it could lead to a stable and sustainable population of around one billion people in 2100. This would allow the country to maintain its status as a global superpower, and its citizens could become even more prosperous with well-cared-for older adults. Moreover, China's experience with this demographic transition could provide valuable insights for other countries facing similar challenges in the decades to come.
The Chinese Communist Party has flip its population policy twice since it assumed power in 1949. Initially, the policy was very pro-natalist - it promoted reproduction and a high national birthrate. Then, in 1979, a strict one-child policy was adopted along with the economic reforms launched by former leader Deng Xiaoping, which fueled China's extraordinary economic rise. In 2015, prompted by a sharp fall in the birth rate, the pro-natal policy was re-introduced to allow two-child families. In 2021, a policy allowing three-child families was also introduced.
The most recent policy statement from Chinese President Xi Jinping came in his address at the 13th National Women's Congress in October 2019. He said, "We should actively promote a new type of family and childbearing culture." Other speeches at the congress showed a shift away from gender equality, including suggestions that women should leave the workforce to have children. However, such pronatalist policies go against the sentiment of many young people in China. Many people do not want to have children, and China's population is declining. This raises fundamental questions about childbirth, dependency ratios, and "optimal" population size. Demographers use a graph called the population pyramid to describe a country's population. It shows how many men and women are in each age group, which helps understand societal issues.
China's population in 1980 was about 980 million people. It was spread in a classic pyramid shape, with a wider base at younger ages and a narrower top at older ages. One unusual thing was that there were slightly fewer people in the 20-24 age range than in the 25-29 age range, because of the Cultural Revolution that started in 1966 and disrupted the population. The 15-19 and 10-14 year old groups showed a rebound, but the start of a trend towards smaller age groups can be seen in the 5-9 and 0-4 year ranges. China's one-child policy helped to reinforce this trend, along with other factors such as rising incomes, better education, urbanisation and easier access to contraception.
By 2020, these factors have dramatically changed the shape of China's population pyramid, as its total population peaked at around 1.4 billion. The "bulge" of older people, which is widely viewed as a potential crisis, can be clearly seen in the increasing number of people aged between 30 and 59. An important factor is the dependency ratio, which compares the "dependent" population of young people (zero to 14 years old) and older adults (65 years and older) with the working population (15 to 64 years). In 1980, China had a ratio of 68 dependants for every 100 people in working age. By 2010, it had improved to 44 dependants per 100, but the coming bulge of older adults will push it up to potentially destabilizing levels—as high as 89 dependants per hundred by 2085.
It is useful to place these images in a broader historical and global context. Around the year 1900, the global population started growing exponentially. This increase was driven primarily by declining death rates and improvements in sanitation and public health. This trend resulted in a "demographic transition" from the historic pattern of birthrates closely matching deathrates, which yielded a slowly-growing human population over centuries.
Around the year 2000, a global transition in the opposite direction began to become increasingly visible: Birthrates started to fall below deathrates, setting the stage for shrinking populations and increasing dependency ratios. Most high-income and middle-income countries are now facing these challenges. Many low-income African countries have populations growing faster than one percent per year.
The population pyramids of India and Japan illustrate these trends. The pyramid for India (below) has a classic shape with a growing population, while the pyramid for Japan is distinctly top-heavy. In India, the dependency ratio is 47, and the median age is 27.9, although smaller age groups at the bottom of the pyramid indicate the beginning of a transition towards a smaller population. However, this trend is not strong enough to provide relief from India's high level of youth unemployment, which is much greater than in China and has the potential to cause social unrest.
In contrast, Japan's pyramid has an unfavorable dependency ratio of 71, and a median age of 48.7. This reflects a strong demographic shift that began 45 years ago and makes it difficult to avoid a sense of crisis. According to the U.N., Japan's population will decrease from 125 million in 2020 to just 75 million by 2100.
01.05.2024
As this news spreads, warnings of a looming crisis grow louder. Perhaps the most concerning aspect of these warnings is that China may not have enough young people to drive economic growth or support older adults. However, China's declining population could be an opportunity rather than a crisis, as it could lead to a stable and sustainable population of around one billion people in 2100. This would allow the country to maintain its status as a global superpower, and its citizens could become even more prosperous with well-cared-for older adults. Moreover, China's experience with this demographic transition could provide valuable insights for other countries facing similar challenges in the decades to come.
The Chinese Communist Party has flip its population policy twice since it assumed power in 1949. Initially, the policy was very pro-natalist - it promoted reproduction and a high national birthrate. Then, in 1979, a strict one-child policy was adopted along with the economic reforms launched by former leader Deng Xiaoping, which fueled China's extraordinary economic rise. In 2015, prompted by a sharp fall in the birth rate, the pro-natal policy was re-introduced to allow two-child families. In 2021, a policy allowing three-child families was also introduced.
The most recent policy statement from Chinese President Xi Jinping came in his address at the 13th National Women's Congress in October 2019. He said, "We should actively promote a new type of family and childbearing culture." Other speeches at the congress showed a shift away from gender equality, including suggestions that women should leave the workforce to have children. However, such pronatalist policies go against the sentiment of many young people in China. Many people do not want to have children, and China's population is declining. This raises fundamental questions about childbirth, dependency ratios, and "optimal" population size. Demographers use a graph called the population pyramid to describe a country's population. It shows how many men and women are in each age group, which helps understand societal issues.
China's population in 1980 was about 980 million people. It was spread in a classic pyramid shape, with a wider base at younger ages and a narrower top at older ages. One unusual thing was that there were slightly fewer people in the 20-24 age range than in the 25-29 age range, because of the Cultural Revolution that started in 1966 and disrupted the population. The 15-19 and 10-14 year old groups showed a rebound, but the start of a trend towards smaller age groups can be seen in the 5-9 and 0-4 year ranges. China's one-child policy helped to reinforce this trend, along with other factors such as rising incomes, better education, urbanisation and easier access to contraception.
By 2020, these factors have dramatically changed the shape of China's population pyramid, as its total population peaked at around 1.4 billion. The "bulge" of older people, which is widely viewed as a potential crisis, can be clearly seen in the increasing number of people aged between 30 and 59. An important factor is the dependency ratio, which compares the "dependent" population of young people (zero to 14 years old) and older adults (65 years and older) with the working population (15 to 64 years). In 1980, China had a ratio of 68 dependants for every 100 people in working age. By 2010, it had improved to 44 dependants per 100, but the coming bulge of older adults will push it up to potentially destabilizing levels—as high as 89 dependants per hundred by 2085.
It is useful to place these images in a broader historical and global context. Around the year 1900, the global population started growing exponentially. This increase was driven primarily by declining death rates and improvements in sanitation and public health. This trend resulted in a "demographic transition" from the historic pattern of birthrates closely matching deathrates, which yielded a slowly-growing human population over centuries.
Around the year 2000, a global transition in the opposite direction began to become increasingly visible: Birthrates started to fall below deathrates, setting the stage for shrinking populations and increasing dependency ratios. Most high-income and middle-income countries are now facing these challenges. Many low-income African countries have populations growing faster than one percent per year.
The population pyramids of India and Japan illustrate these trends. The pyramid for India (below) has a classic shape with a growing population, while the pyramid for Japan is distinctly top-heavy. In India, the dependency ratio is 47, and the median age is 27.9, although smaller age groups at the bottom of the pyramid indicate the beginning of a transition towards a smaller population. However, this trend is not strong enough to provide relief from India's high level of youth unemployment, which is much greater than in China and has the potential to cause social unrest.
In contrast, Japan's pyramid has an unfavorable dependency ratio of 71, and a median age of 48.7. This reflects a strong demographic shift that began 45 years ago and makes it difficult to avoid a sense of crisis. According to the U.N., Japan's population will decrease from 125 million in 2020 to just 75 million by 2100.
01.05.2024