Presidential Election and Turmoil in Venezuela
The dispute over the presidential election results in Venezuela further unified the opposition. Political crisis has also led to uniform demand for transparency across ideologically diverse governments in the region.
From being one of the wealthiest countries in South America, the decline in oil prices in early 2010 pushed the oil-dependent economy of Venezuela into a downward spiral. In the aftermath of the recently concluded presidential elections, the current political turmoil has once again brought attention to the ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela.
The government of President Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, has tried to prevent the economic collapse. However, limited measures have failed to halt the state of hyperinflation, which has led to increasing prices for commodities and shortages of necessities like food and medicine. Low wages and high unemployment make economic recovery difficult. Political unrest, frequent riots, and constant violence have forced millions of Venezuelans to flee the country. Since 2015, an estimated 7 million Venezuelan refugees have left the country, including 6 million who have resettled in other Latin American countries, with nearly 2.5 million settling in Colombia alone.. While the migration indicates that Venezuela is losing its talented working professionals to other countries, the exodus has also caused a regional humanitarian crisis as neighbouring governments have been struggling to absorb refugees and asylum seekers while making efforts to provide them with access to various welfare services. Due to the domestic crisis, President Maduro is faced with increasing calls from within the region for transparency in the election process and the release of election data for recently concluded presidential elections, which the opposition claims have been won by them.
Prelude to the Current Crisis
In the 2015 parliamentary elections, the Democratic Unity Roundtable Alliance (MUD) gained control of the unicameral National Assembly. The coalition party of opposition defeated President Maduro's party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), in the elections. The continued rift between President Maduro and the National Assembly led to violent clashes between people and security forces.
In 2017, President Maduro announced his intention to convene a Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution. He pledged to submit it for a consultative referendum. However, the opposition claimed that this was a ploy to delay regional and presidential elections in 2018. Both elections were likely to be lost by his party as the opposition gained more support. The opposition boycotted elections to the Constituent assembly.. The 2018 presidential election was won by President Maduro amid a boycott from opposition parties and was widely condemned as unfair. The government took control of the National Electoral Authority, Supreme Court, and other legal systems in order to curb the power of the opposition.
In response to the deterioration of the rule of law and undermining of democratic institutions, several countries, including the EU, imposed sanctions on Venezuela. These sanctions included visa restrictions, prohibiting access to financial markets, an arms embargo, freezing assets and bank accounts, and blocking oil imports from the country. The effect of these sanctions, particularly on the oil sector, led to a contraction of the economy.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela's gross domestic product declined by more than 75% between 2013 and 2021. This was the largest decline for any country that was not at war.. The pandemic further compounded the economic and humanitarian crisis.
The continued instability led to demands from the region for President Maduro not only to take steps to arrest economic decline, but also to improve the political environment in the country through dialogue with opposition parties. In 2023, the government and a group of opposition parties (under the name Unitary Platform) signed the Barbados Agreement, laying the foundations for free and fair elections in 2024. This meeting in Barbados was the culmination of a two-year negotiation process facilitated by Norway, initially hosted by Mexico, before shifting to Barbados. The agreement represents a milestone, as both the government and the opposition agreed to talk to each other. Under the terms of the agreement, Venezuelan authorities did not promise to lift a ban on candidacies for key opposition figures.; It did pledge to "recognise and respect the right of each political actor to select" its Presidential candidate freely. Later, the government granted banned candidates the right to appeal their prohibitions before the Supreme Court. Other steps agreed upon by both sides included a thorough update of the electoral registry, including efforts to include the Venezuelan diaspora. The Barbados Agreement stated that the National Electoral Council would invite international observer missions to monitor the polls, including delegations from the EU, UN, African Union and Carter Centre, to ensure transparency and prevent malpractice and vote-rigging.
While Washington was not part of the negotiations, nor was it a party to the agreement, it welcomed the agreement. In line with its commitment to providing sanctions relief in response to concrete steps towards free and fair elections, the United States temporarily allowed transactions involving oil and gas in Venezuela, authorised dealings with the state-owned gold mining company and provided some trade relief on Venezuelan sovereign bonds. The US Department of State clarified that non-compliance with the terms of the Barbados Agreement would lead to the US reversing steps it had taken. For the government, the agreement has helped ease some economic pressure. For opposition groups, it has allowed them to engage in meaningful political processes and achieve their aims.
The Current Crisis
As the opposition united to challenge President Maduro, their candidate, María Corina Machado, a former member of the National Assembly, was barred from the election by the government due to allegations of financial irregularities that occurred while she was a member of the Assembly. Subsequently, the opposition nominated Edmundo González, a former diplomat, as their candidate. During the campaign, the opposition accused the government of vandalizing their offices, harassing party workers and supporters, and arresting civil society members. The government imposed strict restrictions on Venezuelan voters abroad, denying millions of people the right to vote and violating the Bardados Agreement. The opposition pointed to voting irregularities and last-minute changes in polling station locations as attempts by the government to dissuade voters from supporting their candidate.
The Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that President Maduro won the elections. Opposition disputed the result, and the case was submitted to the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court. According to the CNE, after counting 96.87% of polling stations, President Maduro received 51.95% (6.4 million votes), compared to 43.18% (5.3 million) for opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. The opposition called on the CNE to publish detailed data from each polling station, which has received international support. However, the CNE has not released detailed results from any polling center on its website, claiming that its operations were disrupted by a cyberattack. On August 22, the Supreme Court ratified President Maduro's victory, securing his third term from January 10, 2025, to January 1, 2131. Opposition has stated that their candidate received close to 67% of the votes based on its own data.
The lack of detailed electoral data and disputes over the results sparked protests in several cities in Venezuela, leading to violent outbreaks in some cases and the arrests of more than 2,000 people. The Venezuelan government has condemned the violence as a coup attempt, stating that most of the detainees are involved in vandalism and other violent actions. Protests against the election results were also held in other cities in the region, as the opposition called on the diaspora for support.
Crisis and Its Effects
Domestically, the current crisis has unified the fractured opposition. How long they will be able to maintain their unity and continue their struggle against the government is yet to be seen. In the past, Juan Guaidó was elected interim president by the National Assembly following the 2018 election. However, internal divisions within the opposition led to his resignation in 2022. While people have been demonstrating against President Maduro for several years, it is difficult to maintain momentum against a government with the full support of security forces and military, and willing to wait out the protests.
The prevailing uncertain trade and investment climate is expected to further impact the Venezuelan economy, which continues to be in distress. The largest displacement crisis of migrants from Venezuela adds to the labour force in other nations, but the lack of talent within the country likely has consequences for its ability to remain economically competitive in the future. The government will find it difficult to undertake economic diversification plans due to continued political instability, and it would be detrimental for Venezuela to re-join regional economic organizations such as MERCOSUR.
Within the region, Cuba and Nicaragua supported the election results. However, there has been a unified demand for transparency from all ideologically diverse governments in Latin America and the Caribbean. Both Brazil and Argentina called for President Maduro to release the election count. This has brought unity among regional powers, and they are using their political influence to pressure President Maduro into holding talks with the opposition in order to find a solution to the crisis.
Internationally, Russia and China congratulated President Maduro, but if the humanitarian crisis persists and the economy continues to perform poorly, it will be difficult for China and Russia to maintain their support. The Western powers, including the United States and the European Union, dispute the official outcome and call for transparency. Their steps in the past, such as recognizing the opposition candidate as the legitimate president and imposing sanctions, have proved unsuccessful in bringing about change in Venezuela. Therefore, the international community and regional partners need to re-evaluate their approach to bringing stability to Venezuela.
Stability within the country is needed to rebuild its economy and stop the humanitarian crisis that is impacting the lives of people. For the region and for the United States, cooperation with Venezuela will help address the migration of people and growth of organised crime, including drug trafficking. It is not in the interest of the United States to let its strategic adversaries gain influence in a region that remains important for American national security.
*****
*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.
The government of President Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, has tried to prevent the economic collapse. However, limited measures have failed to halt the state of hyperinflation, which has led to increasing prices for commodities and shortages of necessities like food and medicine. Low wages and high unemployment make economic recovery difficult. Political unrest, frequent riots, and constant violence have forced millions of Venezuelans to flee the country. Since 2015, an estimated 7 million Venezuelan refugees have left the country, including 6 million who have resettled in other Latin American countries, with nearly 2.5 million settling in Colombia alone.. While the migration indicates that Venezuela is losing its talented working professionals to other countries, the exodus has also caused a regional humanitarian crisis as neighbouring governments have been struggling to absorb refugees and asylum seekers while making efforts to provide them with access to various welfare services. Due to the domestic crisis, President Maduro is faced with increasing calls from within the region for transparency in the election process and the release of election data for recently concluded presidential elections, which the opposition claims have been won by them.
Prelude to the Current Crisis
In the 2015 parliamentary elections, the Democratic Unity Roundtable Alliance (MUD) gained control of the unicameral National Assembly. The coalition party of opposition defeated President Maduro's party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), in the elections. The continued rift between President Maduro and the National Assembly led to violent clashes between people and security forces.
In 2017, President Maduro announced his intention to convene a Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution. He pledged to submit it for a consultative referendum. However, the opposition claimed that this was a ploy to delay regional and presidential elections in 2018. Both elections were likely to be lost by his party as the opposition gained more support. The opposition boycotted elections to the Constituent assembly.. The 2018 presidential election was won by President Maduro amid a boycott from opposition parties and was widely condemned as unfair. The government took control of the National Electoral Authority, Supreme Court, and other legal systems in order to curb the power of the opposition.
In response to the deterioration of the rule of law and undermining of democratic institutions, several countries, including the EU, imposed sanctions on Venezuela. These sanctions included visa restrictions, prohibiting access to financial markets, an arms embargo, freezing assets and bank accounts, and blocking oil imports from the country. The effect of these sanctions, particularly on the oil sector, led to a contraction of the economy.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Venezuela's gross domestic product declined by more than 75% between 2013 and 2021. This was the largest decline for any country that was not at war.. The pandemic further compounded the economic and humanitarian crisis.
The continued instability led to demands from the region for President Maduro not only to take steps to arrest economic decline, but also to improve the political environment in the country through dialogue with opposition parties. In 2023, the government and a group of opposition parties (under the name Unitary Platform) signed the Barbados Agreement, laying the foundations for free and fair elections in 2024. This meeting in Barbados was the culmination of a two-year negotiation process facilitated by Norway, initially hosted by Mexico, before shifting to Barbados. The agreement represents a milestone, as both the government and the opposition agreed to talk to each other. Under the terms of the agreement, Venezuelan authorities did not promise to lift a ban on candidacies for key opposition figures.; It did pledge to "recognise and respect the right of each political actor to select" its Presidential candidate freely. Later, the government granted banned candidates the right to appeal their prohibitions before the Supreme Court. Other steps agreed upon by both sides included a thorough update of the electoral registry, including efforts to include the Venezuelan diaspora. The Barbados Agreement stated that the National Electoral Council would invite international observer missions to monitor the polls, including delegations from the EU, UN, African Union and Carter Centre, to ensure transparency and prevent malpractice and vote-rigging.
While Washington was not part of the negotiations, nor was it a party to the agreement, it welcomed the agreement. In line with its commitment to providing sanctions relief in response to concrete steps towards free and fair elections, the United States temporarily allowed transactions involving oil and gas in Venezuela, authorised dealings with the state-owned gold mining company and provided some trade relief on Venezuelan sovereign bonds. The US Department of State clarified that non-compliance with the terms of the Barbados Agreement would lead to the US reversing steps it had taken. For the government, the agreement has helped ease some economic pressure. For opposition groups, it has allowed them to engage in meaningful political processes and achieve their aims.
The Current Crisis
As the opposition united to challenge President Maduro, their candidate, María Corina Machado, a former member of the National Assembly, was barred from the election by the government due to allegations of financial irregularities that occurred while she was a member of the Assembly. Subsequently, the opposition nominated Edmundo González, a former diplomat, as their candidate. During the campaign, the opposition accused the government of vandalizing their offices, harassing party workers and supporters, and arresting civil society members. The government imposed strict restrictions on Venezuelan voters abroad, denying millions of people the right to vote and violating the Bardados Agreement. The opposition pointed to voting irregularities and last-minute changes in polling station locations as attempts by the government to dissuade voters from supporting their candidate.
The Venezuelan National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that President Maduro won the elections. Opposition disputed the result, and the case was submitted to the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court. According to the CNE, after counting 96.87% of polling stations, President Maduro received 51.95% (6.4 million votes), compared to 43.18% (5.3 million) for opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. The opposition called on the CNE to publish detailed data from each polling station, which has received international support. However, the CNE has not released detailed results from any polling center on its website, claiming that its operations were disrupted by a cyberattack. On August 22, the Supreme Court ratified President Maduro's victory, securing his third term from January 10, 2025, to January 1, 2131. Opposition has stated that their candidate received close to 67% of the votes based on its own data.
The lack of detailed electoral data and disputes over the results sparked protests in several cities in Venezuela, leading to violent outbreaks in some cases and the arrests of more than 2,000 people. The Venezuelan government has condemned the violence as a coup attempt, stating that most of the detainees are involved in vandalism and other violent actions. Protests against the election results were also held in other cities in the region, as the opposition called on the diaspora for support.
Crisis and Its Effects
Domestically, the current crisis has unified the fractured opposition. How long they will be able to maintain their unity and continue their struggle against the government is yet to be seen. In the past, Juan Guaidó was elected interim president by the National Assembly following the 2018 election. However, internal divisions within the opposition led to his resignation in 2022. While people have been demonstrating against President Maduro for several years, it is difficult to maintain momentum against a government with the full support of security forces and military, and willing to wait out the protests.
The prevailing uncertain trade and investment climate is expected to further impact the Venezuelan economy, which continues to be in distress. The largest displacement crisis of migrants from Venezuela adds to the labour force in other nations, but the lack of talent within the country likely has consequences for its ability to remain economically competitive in the future. The government will find it difficult to undertake economic diversification plans due to continued political instability, and it would be detrimental for Venezuela to re-join regional economic organizations such as MERCOSUR.
Within the region, Cuba and Nicaragua supported the election results. However, there has been a unified demand for transparency from all ideologically diverse governments in Latin America and the Caribbean. Both Brazil and Argentina called for President Maduro to release the election count. This has brought unity among regional powers, and they are using their political influence to pressure President Maduro into holding talks with the opposition in order to find a solution to the crisis.
Internationally, Russia and China congratulated President Maduro, but if the humanitarian crisis persists and the economy continues to perform poorly, it will be difficult for China and Russia to maintain their support. The Western powers, including the United States and the European Union, dispute the official outcome and call for transparency. Their steps in the past, such as recognizing the opposition candidate as the legitimate president and imposing sanctions, have proved unsuccessful in bringing about change in Venezuela. Therefore, the international community and regional partners need to re-evaluate their approach to bringing stability to Venezuela.
Stability within the country is needed to rebuild its economy and stop the humanitarian crisis that is impacting the lives of people. For the region and for the United States, cooperation with Venezuela will help address the migration of people and growth of organised crime, including drug trafficking. It is not in the interest of the United States to let its strategic adversaries gain influence in a region that remains important for American national security.
*****
*Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal.
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