Political Futures and Electoral Expectations: How Colombians Imagine the Country's Leadership in 2046
Between Distrust and Democracy, Colombians Look Toward the Political Future
As Colombia approaches a new electoral cycle, questions about political leadership, institutions, and the country's ideological direction have become increasingly important. Elections are often moments of uncertainty, but they are also moments in which societies reveal their hopes, fears, and expectations about the future.
The Voices for a Worthy Future: Colombia Towards 2046 survey, conducted by the Social Research Center, offers a rare opportunity to examine how Colombians from different social backgrounds imagine the country's political future. The findings reveal a complex picture: widespread distrust toward traditional political institutions coexists with continued faith in democracy, education, and the possibility of national renewal.
Far from disengaging from politics, Colombians appear deeply invested in the country's future. Yet they are increasingly looking beyond conventional political structures in search of solutions.
As Colombia approaches a new electoral cycle, questions about political leadership, institutions, and the country's ideological direction have become increasingly important. Elections are often moments of uncertainty, but they are also moments in which societies reveal their hopes, fears, and expectations about the future.
The Voices for a Worthy Future: Colombia Towards 2046 survey, conducted by the Social Research Center, offers a rare opportunity to examine how Colombians from different social backgrounds imagine the country's political future. The findings reveal a complex picture: widespread distrust toward traditional political institutions coexists with continued faith in democracy, education, and the possibility of national renewal.
Far from disengaging from politics, Colombians appear deeply invested in the country's future. Yet they are increasingly looking beyond conventional political structures in search of solutions.
A Crisis of Confidence in Political Institutions
Perhaps the survey's most striking political finding concerns institutional trust.
Among the twelve institutions evaluated, political institutions received the lowest levels of public confidence. Parliament ranked last, with an average trust score of just 2.34 out of 5, while the judicial system scored 2.44 and the government 2.60.
More than half of respondents expressed low levels of trust in both Parliament (57.9 percent) and the judicial system (56.2 percent). Nearly half (49.5 percent) rated the government negatively.
These findings point to a profound crisis of institutional legitimacy.
At the same time, Colombians have not rejected institutions altogether. Rather, they distinguish sharply between political institutions and knowledge-based institutions. The education system and academia emerged as the most trusted institutions in the survey, both receiving an average score of 3.77 out of 5.
The contrast is significant. Colombians appear far more willing to place their confidence in educators, researchers, and scientific institutions than in elected representatives.
The trust gap between the most trusted institution—education—and the least trusted one—Parliament—reaches 1.45 points, highlighting the extent of political disillusionment.
Which Political Direction Do Colombians Expect?
Respondents were also asked which political tendency they believe will prevail in Colombia by 2046.
The results reveal a clear pattern.
Overall, 64.5 percent of respondents projected that Colombia's future political orientation would be right-leaning, while 35.5 percent anticipated a predominantly left-leaning future.
The single most frequently selected option was Right Liberalism, chosen by 35 percent of respondents, followed by Conservative Right at 28 percent. Liberal Left received 21 percent, while Left Conservative attracted 12% percent.
Contrary to common assumptions about generational change, the survey does not reveal a sharp ideological divide between younger and older Colombians.
Among respondents aged sixteen to twenty-nine, 62.9 percent anticipated a right-leaning political future. The figure rises slightly among respondents aged forty-seven to sixty-five, where 68.8 percent projected a right-oriented future.
The differences between age groups are relatively modest.
Rather than indicating ideological polarization between generations, the findings suggest broad expectations that Colombia's future political landscape will remain largely market-oriented and centered on private initiative.
Young Colombians: Critical, Yet Engaged
Although younger respondents do not differ dramatically from older generations in their political projections, they do display distinctive patterns of institutional trust.
Young Colombians consistently report higher levels of trust than other age groups in education, academia, technology, and even government.
Among respondents aged sixteen to twenty-nine:
71.9 percent expressed high trust in the education system.
70.8 percent expressed high trust in academia and science.
70.8 percent expressed high trust in the IT sector.
Young respondents also reported somewhat higher trust in government institutions than middle-aged respondents.
Government received an average score of 2.91 out of 5 among younger participants, compared with 2.41 among respondents aged thirty to forty-six.
These findings suggest that younger Colombians are not necessarily more optimistic about politics itself, but they remain comparatively more willing to trust institutions capable of producing change.
Education, innovation, and knowledge appear to occupy a particularly important place in the political imagination of younger generations.
Geography and Conflict Shape Political Expectations
Political expectations also vary according to territorial experience.
Nearly half of all survey participants—47.2 percent—live in territories currently affected by conflict, at risk of conflict, or experiencing post-conflict conditions.
Respondents from post-conflict areas display some of the survey's most intriguing patterns.
Among this group, trust in education reaches 4.26 out of 5, while trust in academia rises to an impressive 4.47 out of 5—the highest score recorded for any institution in any territorial category.
By contrast, trust in Parliament remains low across all territorial contexts.
The findings suggest that communities directly affected by violence may place particular importance on knowledge institutions as vehicles for reconstruction, social mobility, and peacebuilding.
Political legitimacy in these regions appears to depend less on traditional political actors and more on institutions associated with learning, opportunity, and long-term development.
Corruption and Violence Remain Central Political Concerns
Open-ended responses reveal the issues that continue to dominate Colombians' political concerns.
When asked to identify the country's greatest dangers, respondents most frequently mentioned corruption, cited by 26.4 percent of participants. Violence and armed groups followed closely at 24.1 percent.
Other frequently mentioned concerns included poor governance, political polarization, inequality, and deficiencies in education.
Taken together, these responses suggest that Colombians perceive political challenges not primarily in ideological terms, but in institutional and ethical ones.
The principal concerns are not whether the country moves left or right.
They are whether institutions function effectively, whether corruption can be reduced, and whether peace can be consolidated.
This perspective is reinforced elsewhere in the survey. More than 45 percent of respondents identified a crisis of confidence in institutions as a major future risk, while 41.1 percent expressed concern about the deterioration of the peace process.
Political stability, institutional credibility, and peace remain deeply interconnected in the Colombian public imagination.
Reform, Not Rejection
Despite widespread dissatisfaction with political institutions, respondents do not advocate withdrawal from collective life.
Instead, they express strong support for reform.
When asked about measures necessary to address future challenges, 55.5 percent selected the reform of state institutions, while 51.8 percent emphasized the need for cooperation among government, private organizations, and citizens.
A further 46.2 percent highlighted the creation of a new educational system.
These findings suggest that Colombians are not rejecting institutions altogether. Rather, they are calling for institutions that are more effective, trustworthy, and responsive.
The survey reveals a population seeking renewal rather than rupture.
A Democracy Under Pressure, but Not Without Hope
The political picture emerging from the survey is neither one of democratic collapse nor one of institutional confidence.
Colombians remain skeptical of governments, legislatures, and traditional political structures. Corruption, violence, and institutional distrust continue to shape public perceptions of the future.
Yet beneath this skepticism lies a remarkable degree of civic aspiration.
Respondents overwhelmingly envision a future characterized by economic prosperity, respect for human rights, peace, and sustainability. They continue to place their trust in education, science, communities, and human potential.
The survey therefore tells a nuanced story.
Colombians may distrust politics as it currently operates, but they have not abandoned the idea of collective progress. As new elections approach, the challenge for political leaders will not simply be winning votes. It will be rebuilding confidence in institutions that many citizens believe have fallen short of their promises.
The future imagined by Colombians is not anti-political.
It is demanding.
Citizens expect more from their institutions, more from their leaders, and more from democracy itself. Whether Colombia's political system can meet those expectations may prove to be one of the country's defining questions on the road to 2046.
Perhaps the survey's most striking political finding concerns institutional trust.
Among the twelve institutions evaluated, political institutions received the lowest levels of public confidence. Parliament ranked last, with an average trust score of just 2.34 out of 5, while the judicial system scored 2.44 and the government 2.60.
More than half of respondents expressed low levels of trust in both Parliament (57.9 percent) and the judicial system (56.2 percent). Nearly half (49.5 percent) rated the government negatively.
These findings point to a profound crisis of institutional legitimacy.
At the same time, Colombians have not rejected institutions altogether. Rather, they distinguish sharply between political institutions and knowledge-based institutions. The education system and academia emerged as the most trusted institutions in the survey, both receiving an average score of 3.77 out of 5.
The contrast is significant. Colombians appear far more willing to place their confidence in educators, researchers, and scientific institutions than in elected representatives.
The trust gap between the most trusted institution—education—and the least trusted one—Parliament—reaches 1.45 points, highlighting the extent of political disillusionment.
Which Political Direction Do Colombians Expect?
Respondents were also asked which political tendency they believe will prevail in Colombia by 2046.
The results reveal a clear pattern.
Overall, 64.5 percent of respondents projected that Colombia's future political orientation would be right-leaning, while 35.5 percent anticipated a predominantly left-leaning future.
The single most frequently selected option was Right Liberalism, chosen by 35 percent of respondents, followed by Conservative Right at 28 percent. Liberal Left received 21 percent, while Left Conservative attracted 12% percent.
Contrary to common assumptions about generational change, the survey does not reveal a sharp ideological divide between younger and older Colombians.
Among respondents aged sixteen to twenty-nine, 62.9 percent anticipated a right-leaning political future. The figure rises slightly among respondents aged forty-seven to sixty-five, where 68.8 percent projected a right-oriented future.
The differences between age groups are relatively modest.
Rather than indicating ideological polarization between generations, the findings suggest broad expectations that Colombia's future political landscape will remain largely market-oriented and centered on private initiative.
Young Colombians: Critical, Yet Engaged
Although younger respondents do not differ dramatically from older generations in their political projections, they do display distinctive patterns of institutional trust.
Young Colombians consistently report higher levels of trust than other age groups in education, academia, technology, and even government.
Among respondents aged sixteen to twenty-nine:
71.9 percent expressed high trust in the education system.
70.8 percent expressed high trust in academia and science.
70.8 percent expressed high trust in the IT sector.
Young respondents also reported somewhat higher trust in government institutions than middle-aged respondents.
Government received an average score of 2.91 out of 5 among younger participants, compared with 2.41 among respondents aged thirty to forty-six.
These findings suggest that younger Colombians are not necessarily more optimistic about politics itself, but they remain comparatively more willing to trust institutions capable of producing change.
Education, innovation, and knowledge appear to occupy a particularly important place in the political imagination of younger generations.
Geography and Conflict Shape Political Expectations
Political expectations also vary according to territorial experience.
Nearly half of all survey participants—47.2 percent—live in territories currently affected by conflict, at risk of conflict, or experiencing post-conflict conditions.
Respondents from post-conflict areas display some of the survey's most intriguing patterns.
Among this group, trust in education reaches 4.26 out of 5, while trust in academia rises to an impressive 4.47 out of 5—the highest score recorded for any institution in any territorial category.
By contrast, trust in Parliament remains low across all territorial contexts.
The findings suggest that communities directly affected by violence may place particular importance on knowledge institutions as vehicles for reconstruction, social mobility, and peacebuilding.
Political legitimacy in these regions appears to depend less on traditional political actors and more on institutions associated with learning, opportunity, and long-term development.
Corruption and Violence Remain Central Political Concerns
Open-ended responses reveal the issues that continue to dominate Colombians' political concerns.
When asked to identify the country's greatest dangers, respondents most frequently mentioned corruption, cited by 26.4 percent of participants. Violence and armed groups followed closely at 24.1 percent.
Other frequently mentioned concerns included poor governance, political polarization, inequality, and deficiencies in education.
Taken together, these responses suggest that Colombians perceive political challenges not primarily in ideological terms, but in institutional and ethical ones.
The principal concerns are not whether the country moves left or right.
They are whether institutions function effectively, whether corruption can be reduced, and whether peace can be consolidated.
This perspective is reinforced elsewhere in the survey. More than 45 percent of respondents identified a crisis of confidence in institutions as a major future risk, while 41.1 percent expressed concern about the deterioration of the peace process.
Political stability, institutional credibility, and peace remain deeply interconnected in the Colombian public imagination.
Reform, Not Rejection
Despite widespread dissatisfaction with political institutions, respondents do not advocate withdrawal from collective life.
Instead, they express strong support for reform.
When asked about measures necessary to address future challenges, 55.5 percent selected the reform of state institutions, while 51.8 percent emphasized the need for cooperation among government, private organizations, and citizens.
A further 46.2 percent highlighted the creation of a new educational system.
These findings suggest that Colombians are not rejecting institutions altogether. Rather, they are calling for institutions that are more effective, trustworthy, and responsive.
The survey reveals a population seeking renewal rather than rupture.
A Democracy Under Pressure, but Not Without Hope
The political picture emerging from the survey is neither one of democratic collapse nor one of institutional confidence.
Colombians remain skeptical of governments, legislatures, and traditional political structures. Corruption, violence, and institutional distrust continue to shape public perceptions of the future.
Yet beneath this skepticism lies a remarkable degree of civic aspiration.
Respondents overwhelmingly envision a future characterized by economic prosperity, respect for human rights, peace, and sustainability. They continue to place their trust in education, science, communities, and human potential.
The survey therefore tells a nuanced story.
Colombians may distrust politics as it currently operates, but they have not abandoned the idea of collective progress. As new elections approach, the challenge for political leaders will not simply be winning votes. It will be rebuilding confidence in institutions that many citizens believe have fallen short of their promises.
The future imagined by Colombians is not anti-political.
It is demanding.
Citizens expect more from their institutions, more from their leaders, and more from democracy itself. Whether Colombia's political system can meet those expectations may prove to be one of the country's defining questions on the road to 2046.
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