For much of the twentieth century, we learned to divide the world into two categories: rich countries and poor countries. The former had oil, strong industries, or large markets. The latter tried to catch up by exporting raw materials, attracting foreign investment, or growing on the basis of their natural resources.
Today, that classification, in my opinion, is beginning to fall short.
The true frontier of the twenty-first century no longer seems to be between those who have more money and those who have less. It lies between countries capable of producing knowledge and those that will continue to buy it, because as Hausmann (2021) rightly put it, "Economic development consists of accumulating productive knowledge, not simply capital." The difference may seem subtle, but it will change economics, politics, and geopolitics over the coming decades.
Two centuries ago, power lay where there was fertile land. Later, it shifted towards countries capable of industrialising. After that, oil redefined the global balance. Today, however, the new sources of power have less to do with what comes out of the ground and much more with what happens inside laboratories, universities, research centres, and technology companies.
It is no coincidence that the most competitive economies in the world are also those that invest the most in research and development. According to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Israel allocates around 6.3% of its GDP to R&D; South Korea exceeds 5%; the United States invests about 3.6%; and China is already around 2.6%. Colombia, by contrast, barely exceeds 0.3%.
And although India still invests less in research and development (0.7%) than several advanced economies, it has decided to compete in what will drive growth in the coming decades: talent, engineering, digitalisation, the pharmaceutical industry, artificial intelligence, and scientific training. Today, it graduates hundreds of thousands of engineers each year and has consolidated itself as a key player in the global development of software and technology services. According to NASSCOM, India's technology sector employs about six million people and is projected to reach revenues of $315 billion in the fiscal year 2025-2026.

This aligns with what economist Mariana Mazzucato has insisted on: "The most successful economies are not those where the State simply corrects market failures, but those capable of steering collective innovation missions. Knowledge does not appear spontaneously: it requires public policies, sustained investment, and a long-term vision."
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has been warning for several years that, as economies reach higher levels of development, growth depends less and less on accumulating physical capital and more and more on the capacity to generate new ideas, innovations, and technologies. In other words: producing more is no longer enough; now it matters to produce better, and above all, to produce what no one else has created. This transformation also explains why some countries without large reserves of oil, gas, or strategic minerals have become decisive players in the global economy.
South Korea went from being one of the poorest countries in the world after the war to becoming a leader in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology. Israel built a world-renowned innovation ecosystem. Singapore, with no significant natural resources, bet on education, logistics, and technology to become one of the world's leading financial centres.
Meanwhile, immensely resource-rich countries continue to face enormous difficulties in translating that wealth into sustainable well-being.
India offers an interesting example of this logic. Although its investment is still below that of the major innovative economies, the country has understood that its future competitiveness will depend less on the cost of its labour and much more on its ability to train engineers, develop software, produce medicines, lead digital technologies, and participate in the global race for artificial intelligence. It is not merely seeking to grow; it is seeking to occupy a different place in the knowledge economy.
And here an uncomfortable question arises for Latin America.
For decades, we have discussed how to make the most of our natural resources. But perhaps the most important challenge is no longer to extract more oil, more copper, or more lithium. Perhaps the real question is how many patents we register, how much research we fund, how many scientists we retain, and how much knowledge we are able to convert into companies, technology, and innovation.
Because the risk is no longer solely about depending on raw materials. The risk is becoming countries that export resources while importing the ideas that give them value.
Sources consulted:
· UNESCO Institute for Statistics – Research and Development Data
· World Bank – Research and Development Expenditure (% of GDP)
· OECD – Foundations for Growth and Competitiveness
· Mazzucato, M. (2013). The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths.
· Mazzucato, M. (2021). Mission Economy: A Moonshot Guide to Changing Capitalism.
· Stiglitz, J. (1999). Knowledge as a Global Public Good.
· Hidalgo, C. and Hausmann, R. (2009). The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity.