In recent months, several Latin American countries have held electoral processes in which centre‑right or right‑wing candidates have emerged victorious. To mention only the most recent cases: in Chile, José Antonio Kast was elected with 58% of the vote in the second round; in Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella obtained a narrow 49.6%; and in Peru, Keiko Fujimori prevailed with 50.13% of the vote.
These results add to governments such as those of Javier Milei in Argentina, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, and Rodrigo Paz in Bolivia, leading many analysts to speak of a new political turn to the right in the region. However, is this really the case? Are we witnessing an ideological shift among Latin Americans, or rather an electorate increasingly willing to punish governments that fail to respond to their main concerns?
For political scientist and internationalist Sébastien Dube, PhD in Political Science, the explanation goes far beyond a simple shift between left and right. "We are facing a scenario of conjunctural alternation," the expert stated in an interview with the Social Research Center. In his view, there are no major sociological changes indicating an ideological turn in the region. What does exist is a growing discontent with government performance and their inability to respond to problems such as the economy, security, and organised crime.
The expert cites the case of Chile, where just four months after Kast took office, he already had an disapproval rating above 50%, which means his support base is very fragile. Dube mentioned that, at the Latin American level, trust in parties, politicians, congresses, and presidencies is very low, regardless of whether they are right‑wing or left‑wing governments, which also intensifies political weakening.
Brazil, however, shows that this scenario is not uniform across the region. Ahead of the next elections, polls give President Lula da Silva an advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Dube considered that Lula maintains good chances of winning, due to three factors: his approval ratings after four years in government, the internal divisions within the Bolsonaro family, and the reaction of the Brazilian electorate to Donald Trump's threats and tariffs. "Everything points to a very close election," he noted.
Dubé believes that although alternation can be positive for democracy, the real problem arises when neither left‑wing nor right‑wing governments are able to respond to basic challenges such as security or the economy. That scenario, he warns, deepens institutional distrust and opens the door to "populist drifts that are also incapable of solving sustainable problems over time."
This situation presents particular challenges and imbalances for each Latin American country, but it also implies risks at the regional level. For Dubé, this volatile political landscape is not particularly promising for blocs such as Mercosur, the Pacific Alliance, or CELAC, among others. "I see the inability of Latin governments to truly create value chains within Latin America. Betting on greater intra‑regional trade and greater economic and commercial coordination at the regional level is a very long‑term bet," the expert stressed.
To this is added the pressure exerted by volatile voters, who demand immediate solutions to their main concerns. According to Dube, this dynamic leads governments to focus on short‑term agendas and discourages the investment of diplomatic resources in integration projects whose results, especially in trade matters, have been limited for decades. "I do not see a scenario that facilitates a return to a regional cooperation agenda in Latin America in the next five or ten years," he warned.
Will this trend of volatility in the region continue?
According to the internationalist, yes, it is very likely that governments in the region will continue to rotate power between left‑ and right‑wing leaders. Furthermore, he sees that Latin American lefts, which in recent years have adopted discourses more focused on social issues, diversity, and inclusion, may now return to a more traditional left‑wing agenda centred on economic and socio‑economic issues.
"They are going to return to more traditional positions, they are going to abandon the banner of diversity to return to issues such as how to tackle inflation, the cost of food, housing, pensions, and access to education. This will consolidate in the coming years," he stressed.
Regarding so‑called 'outsiders', Dube stated that each case must be examined carefully, as often certain political figures are presented as outsiders to the political elite, but in reality have cultivated ties with traditional politicians. Furthermore, he warns that such individuals may have more difficulty negotiating stable agreements with parties or groups that do hold political power.
So, rather than a definitive ideological shift to the right, the new Latin American political map seems to reflect a scenario of greater volatility, in which citizens are increasingly willing to punish those who fail to respond to their main concerns. The challenge for governments, regardless of their political orientation, will be to demonstrate that they can offer sustainable solutions in the midst of growing institutional distrust.