Nicaragua has recently become the focus of international attention following statements made by President Daniel Ortega, who announced a few weeks ago that the Central American country would no longer hold elections. The remarks were made on July 19, the anniversary of the triumph of the Sandinista People's Revolution (1979).
Ortega, 80, who has now completed 19 consecutive years in power, seeks to prevent the opposition from governing. He also stated that he would work with Parliament—controlled by him and his allies—to "build a wall" against political parties seeking to come to power through elections.
The announcement prompted widespread international condemnation. The United States warned that it would respond to the measures announced by Managua, while the European Union urged the Nicaraguan government to hold elections in accordance with international standards.
For Douglas Castro, a Nicaraguan researcher, academic, and activist who has been living in exile since 2021, what is currently taking place represents "a radicalization" and the consolidation of a long-term strategy aimed at gradually closing the country's political system.
"I believe Nicaragua's current project is one of dynastic succession. They hold absolute power; we are very close to becoming like North Korea. Some even refer to Nicaragua as the North Korea of Latin America," he told the Social Research Center.
According to Castro, following the democratic transition that began in 1990, Nicaragua never fully succeeded in consolidating its democratic institutions. In his view, Ortega used his years in opposition to gradually weaken that process and, once he returned to the presidency, implemented a systematic strategy to concentrate power.
A key turning point came in 2018, when the violent repression of protests, the killing of students, and the closure of civic space for the opposition, independent media, and religious institutions paved the way for a new phase of tighter political control.
"What we are witnessing is the legal codification of practices that had already existed in reality," Castro argues.
This interpretation aligns with the analysis of political scientist Manuel Orozco for the Inter-American Dialogue, who argues that following the 2018 political crisis, the regime restructured its governing model to rule through coercion, consolidating a system of control based on institutional capture and the restriction of fundamental rights.
Additionally, Orozco argues that this model of power rests on four pillars: international isolation and alliances with non-democratic regimes; the criminalization of democracy through legal reforms and the strengthening of the state's coercive apparatus; the economic capture of the state; and the control of information through censorship and propaganda. According to the political scientist, this structure is coordinated by a hierarchical network of no more than 200 individuals, including the regime's closest political allies, military officials, and bureaucrats.
More recently, Ortega's actions also represent a final strategy to ensure the continuity of power beyond his own leadership. In other words, they are aimed at securing power for his wife, Rosario Murillo, and, eventually, for their children. This interpretation is shared by Douglas Castro, who argues that strengthening institutional control, implementing legal reforms, and further closing political space for the opposition are all intended to eliminate any potential risk to a future political succession.
However, Castro believes that Rosario Murillo does not possess the same political legitimacy that Daniel Ortega has built throughout his career."She is a vulnerable figure, and I believe many of those who are militarily loyal to Ortega would not necessarily show the same loyalty to her," he says.
This raises an important question: Is a democratic transition still possible, or has that scenario effectively been ruled out for the time being? According to Castro, the majority of Nicaraguans remain opposed to the government. However, persecution, exile, and repression have prevented that majority from organizing politically—something he considers essential for any meaningful political change.
"The visible opposition figures are all outside Nicaragua; there is no one inside the country because any visible leader would immediately be expelled," he explains.
Nevertheless, he argues that public rejection of the government remains widespread and that even a relatively unknown candidate could defeat Ortega in a genuinely competitive election.
Castro also emphasizes that the international context remains a decisive factor. In his view, the events of January 3 in Venezuela (when U.S. forces overthrew Nicolás Maduro) partially altered Ortega's strategic calculations.
"After January 3 (...), Ortega realized that certain mechanisms could indeed be activated—particularly U.S. intervention—to take strong action that he had previously believed was impossible," he says.
Castro believes that Nicaragua's future will depend on a combination of factors, including the possible reactivation of the domestic opposition, sustained international pressure, and the evolution of political developments in countries such as Venezuela and Cuba.
Although the regime has succeeded in concentrating political power and reducing the space for organized opposition to a minimum, Castro argues that its latest decisions also reveal a constant concern with preserving that control. In his view, the tightening of the legal and repressive apparatus reflects the perception that any crack in the system could become a threat to the regime's continuity.
"Why does Ortega feel the need to repress people and deploy police forces in the streets? Because he is afraid; he perceives threats," the researcher concludes.
¿What Lessons Does Nicaragua Offer to the Rest of Latin America?
What is currently taking place in Nicaragua sets a troubling precedent for the entire region, particularly for those with authoritarian ambitions. Castro is especially concerned that developments like those seen in Nicaragua may lead other aspiring autocrats to conclude that international organizations lack the effective tools needed to stop them and prevent authoritarian rule from advancing.
Another key concern, according to Castro, is the potential impact on security and the economy, particularly in Central America.
"Ortega has threatened Central American countries, saying that if they increase pressure on his government, he could block regional trade. That would pose a serious threat to democracy and regional stability. It would be extremely grave," he added.
Sources
● Castro, D. (2026). Interview with the Social Research Center on the evolution of the Ortega-Murillo regime in Nicaragua. Interview conducted by Lizeth Ortega, August 2026.
● Orozco, M. (2026, June). The Shape of Dictatorship in Nicaragua: 2026. Inter-American Dialogue. https://thedialogue.org/blogs/2026/06/the-shape-of-dictatorship-in-nicaragua-2026