The El Niño Phenomenon Poses a Major Challenge for Latin America: Moving from Reaction to Prevention
- Lizeth Ortega Cubillosjournalist and digital communication specialist
International and local meteorological agencies have issued alerts over the development of a strong El Niño phenomenon for the 2026-2027 period. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) expects conditions to intensify rapidly in the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heat waves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events.
However, in Latin America, the challenge posed by El Niño goes far beyond the intensity it may reach and the impacts that may be felt. The region has a much greater forecasting capacity and can anticipate the arrival of these events months, and even up to a year, in advance. The problem lies in turning all the scientific information available into effective prevention plans.
Germán Poveda Jaramillo, a researcher in climate change and hydrology and an ad honorem professor at the National University of Colombia in Medellín, told the Social Research Center that Latin America continues to have limited capacity to turn this scientific knowledge into policies, plans and warning systems that actually allow action to be taken before impacts occur.
“We are more reactive rather than preventive (...) we have done very little and almost always do it too late, and that is why all the tragedies and their impacts continue to hit us,” Poveda said.
For the expert, who has spent more than 40 years researching these issues, it is frustrating that all the scientific knowledge developed to understand why this phenomenon occurs, how it develops and what its physical causes are has still not been adequately translated into plans and programs for the implementation of early warning systems. The reasons behind this gap are diverse.
On the one hand, according to Poveda, greater communication efforts are needed between scientists and decision-makers in different countries. “Scientific journalism, for example, in our countries is underdeveloped. There are very valuable efforts, but I think that the region still needs more science journalists,” he said.
Likewise, it is necessary to improve the organizational capacity of municipal, departmental and national governments around these phenomena in order to incorporate these strategies or plans into state programs rather than into the plans of governments in office.
“This is a phenomenon that occurs roughly on the scale of a government: a government is replaced every four years, and an El Niño phenomenon also occurs roughly every four years. Many times, these two time scales come into resonance and, because of this, El Niño catches us unprepared, because strategies and measures are not adopted as state policies, but rather as government plans,” he added.
The expert identified a third difficulty related to corruption problems affecting disaster risk management in the region and cited the scandal involving Colombia’s National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD), the entity responsible for coordinating the response to emergencies. The case involved alleged irregularities and cost overruns in public contracts, including the purchase of 40 water tankers intended to supply water to La Guajira. “Several things come together to make the situation much more concerning,” he added.
For Poveda, it is essential that Latin America invest more in observing weather, climate and all the variables that make up these phenomena, while continuing to build human capacities and train new hydrologists, meteorologists, and specialists in ocean and atmospheric sciences. “That will help us continue to gain a better understanding of and improve our ability to predict these phenomena. This also calls on us to learn how to activate early warning systems very quickly against all the impacts of El Niño.”
What Is the El Niño Phenomenon and How Does It Affect Latin America?
The specialist explained that El Niño is an abnormal warming of the waters of the Tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly in the central and eastern parts of the ocean. This year, in particular, this warming is expected to be even more intense, and there is already talk of a “Super El Niño” that could have significant impacts on the region.
However, it is important to note that this phenomenon does not affect all of Latin America in the same way. On the contrary, it creates different risks and challenges depending on the area.
For example, in northern South America, in Colombia, extremely severe droughts and heat waves are common, with significant implications for water supplies used for electricity generation. Agriculture is also affected because, without sufficient water, the agricultural and livestock sectors suffer. In addition, El Niño brings heat waves and many wildfires, as is currently being seen in parts of Colombia.
On the other hand, along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, the opposite occurs: excessive rainfall and heavy downpours can lead to landslides and flooding, which also disrupt economic activity.
In Central America and the Caribbean, according to Poveda, the situation is very similar to that in northern Colombia, with rainfall deficits, droughts and warming, leading to problems for agriculture and electricity generation in some countries. “However, for some Caribbean nations, El Niño is indeed a blessing because it greatly suppresses or reduces the incidence of hurricanes in the North Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.”
Finally, toward the southern part of the continent, in Argentina, for example, excessive rainfall can lead to flooding and severely affect the country’s agriculture and livestock sectors.
Thus, depending on where each person is located, Germán Poveda calls for the necessary and appropriate measures to be taken to mitigate risks, especially now that the coming months could bring more severe impacts associated with the El Niño phenomenon. “In Colombia, for example, where El Niño causes droughts, wildfires, heat waves, and problems with water supplies for human consumption and electricity generation, it is important to save water and energy. It is also important to avoid burning, among other measures,” he stressed.
Sources:
2.Pan American Health Organization (PAHO/WHO). Public Health Situation Analysis: El Niño in the Americas 2026-2027. June 24, 2026. PAHO/WHO – El Niño in the Americas 2026-2027
3.La Silla Vacía. Everything known about the corruption case involving Colombia’s UNGRD. April 4, 2025; updated July 22, 2025.
La Silla Vacía – UNGRD corruption case
However, in Latin America, the challenge posed by El Niño goes far beyond the intensity it may reach and the impacts that may be felt. The region has a much greater forecasting capacity and can anticipate the arrival of these events months, and even up to a year, in advance. The problem lies in turning all the scientific information available into effective prevention plans.
Germán Poveda Jaramillo, a researcher in climate change and hydrology and an ad honorem professor at the National University of Colombia in Medellín, told the Social Research Center that Latin America continues to have limited capacity to turn this scientific knowledge into policies, plans and warning systems that actually allow action to be taken before impacts occur.
“We are more reactive rather than preventive (...) we have done very little and almost always do it too late, and that is why all the tragedies and their impacts continue to hit us,” Poveda said.
For the expert, who has spent more than 40 years researching these issues, it is frustrating that all the scientific knowledge developed to understand why this phenomenon occurs, how it develops and what its physical causes are has still not been adequately translated into plans and programs for the implementation of early warning systems. The reasons behind this gap are diverse.
On the one hand, according to Poveda, greater communication efforts are needed between scientists and decision-makers in different countries. “Scientific journalism, for example, in our countries is underdeveloped. There are very valuable efforts, but I think that the region still needs more science journalists,” he said.
Likewise, it is necessary to improve the organizational capacity of municipal, departmental and national governments around these phenomena in order to incorporate these strategies or plans into state programs rather than into the plans of governments in office.
“This is a phenomenon that occurs roughly on the scale of a government: a government is replaced every four years, and an El Niño phenomenon also occurs roughly every four years. Many times, these two time scales come into resonance and, because of this, El Niño catches us unprepared, because strategies and measures are not adopted as state policies, but rather as government plans,” he added.
The expert identified a third difficulty related to corruption problems affecting disaster risk management in the region and cited the scandal involving Colombia’s National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD), the entity responsible for coordinating the response to emergencies. The case involved alleged irregularities and cost overruns in public contracts, including the purchase of 40 water tankers intended to supply water to La Guajira. “Several things come together to make the situation much more concerning,” he added.
For Poveda, it is essential that Latin America invest more in observing weather, climate and all the variables that make up these phenomena, while continuing to build human capacities and train new hydrologists, meteorologists, and specialists in ocean and atmospheric sciences. “That will help us continue to gain a better understanding of and improve our ability to predict these phenomena. This also calls on us to learn how to activate early warning systems very quickly against all the impacts of El Niño.”
What Is the El Niño Phenomenon and How Does It Affect Latin America?
The specialist explained that El Niño is an abnormal warming of the waters of the Tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly in the central and eastern parts of the ocean. This year, in particular, this warming is expected to be even more intense, and there is already talk of a “Super El Niño” that could have significant impacts on the region.
However, it is important to note that this phenomenon does not affect all of Latin America in the same way. On the contrary, it creates different risks and challenges depending on the area.
For example, in northern South America, in Colombia, extremely severe droughts and heat waves are common, with significant implications for water supplies used for electricity generation. Agriculture is also affected because, without sufficient water, the agricultural and livestock sectors suffer. In addition, El Niño brings heat waves and many wildfires, as is currently being seen in parts of Colombia.
On the other hand, along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, the opposite occurs: excessive rainfall and heavy downpours can lead to landslides and flooding, which also disrupt economic activity.
In Central America and the Caribbean, according to Poveda, the situation is very similar to that in northern Colombia, with rainfall deficits, droughts and warming, leading to problems for agriculture and electricity generation in some countries. “However, for some Caribbean nations, El Niño is indeed a blessing because it greatly suppresses or reduces the incidence of hurricanes in the North Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.”
Finally, toward the southern part of the continent, in Argentina, for example, excessive rainfall can lead to flooding and severely affect the country’s agriculture and livestock sectors.
Thus, depending on where each person is located, Germán Poveda calls for the necessary and appropriate measures to be taken to mitigate risks, especially now that the coming months could bring more severe impacts associated with the El Niño phenomenon. “In Colombia, for example, where El Niño causes droughts, wildfires, heat waves, and problems with water supplies for human consumption and electricity generation, it is important to save water and energy. It is also important to avoid burning, among other measures,” he stressed.
Sources:
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO). El Niño forecast to intensify. July 3, 2026.
2.Pan American Health Organization (PAHO/WHO). Public Health Situation Analysis: El Niño in the Americas 2026-2027. June 24, 2026. PAHO/WHO – El Niño in the Americas 2026-2027
3.La Silla Vacía. Everything known about the corruption case involving Colombia’s UNGRD. April 4, 2025; updated July 22, 2025.
La Silla Vacía – UNGRD corruption case
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